Jack Astor's Lobster Dip Recipe

About Camisea

With regard to recent comments made in relation to the subject Camisea, I have an addition to my articles published on 08 and 26 March in the Journal Courier. Article 1



Camisea

In recent weeks there has been a debate on the future of gas in Peru. The concern raised in this debate is that domestic gas demand growing rapidly, therefore it is said, there would be enough in a few years to meet domestic demand and export contracts already signed.

All debate is healthy, especially if the motivations of its proponents are sound, seeking a more prosperous and strong. Unfortunately, some of the actors in the current debate are politically motivated. In recent weeks there has been a veritable barrage, no valid arguments against Alejandro Toledo and several of his ministers. The reaction of outrage of the former president is fully justified. The prosecutors alleged at some point have to explain their true motives.

The truth is that Camisea is the work of various governments: Fujimori (under whom the bid was launched after the fall of the draft Shell), Paniagua (the Minister of Energy signed the original contract), Toledo (which led to economic stability Members of the winning consortium to invest more billion in the project), and Garcia (under whose government organized the financing of gas export project and began the planning of a petrochemical industry). It is very likely that in each stage is of the opinion today, with hindsight, could have done things better. For example, who would have thought in 2002 when the project began, that Peru would grow at an average of almost 7% annually over the period 2002-2008 and that therefore domestic demand for gas would be what it is today ? Who would have thought that oil would go from $ 15 per barrel in 2002 to $ 150 in mid-2008, then fell to $ 35 today, with resulting sharp variations in the price international gas? Misjudgments, of course, but around the world committed. Fouls "criminal or constitutional? Come, come, do not spend!

Al grain. Peru has enough proven reserves of gas (14 TCF) to meet domestic demand and export contracts already signed. There are at least four batches of gas exploration with good potential, although the companies involved obviously can not make announcements before they have fully confirmed specific findings.

We now demand side. In 2003, when he still had not started the operation of Camisea and there was clearly the demand (the tube began with little use of their capacity) promoted a low price of gas for domestic use, mainly for electricity generation. This price was confirmed through several years at the beginning of the current government to maintain economic power rates. But at the same time, the low gas price has made electricity generators, with cheaper gas, use it instead of investing heavily in more expensive equipment, but more efficient, "combined cycle" in which electricity gets per unit of gas consumed. There is a part of the increase in domestic demand. This issue is being resolved with the Ministry of Energy and Mines.

As in all economic, the solution is to attack the two sides of the issue: supply (exploration) and demand (and therefore low prices inefficient use of an exhaustible resource.) The solution is not to demonize the previous governments and throw rocks at ghosts.

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Celso Pastor de la Torre. Has left us 94 years of age, a good friend and a very prominent representative of Peru and abroad. Noble knight, was twice ambassador of democracy in Washington. Life hit him but he never lost the good humor and was always loyal to his friends and democratic ideals. We work together from the 60s, sometimes difficult to defend causes, but above all I remember was a pioneer promoter is known artistic culture of Peru in the United States. Celso, we miss you very much. Article 2



Gas and Energy Policy

Amid the barrage, blocks and sometimes unsound demands, there has been another debate on the energy future of Peru. It's healthy that this issue is evaluated and discussed publicly. But the discussion is currently dominated by alarmist statements to the effect that gas reserves are much smaller than previously announced and will soon come blackouts and power outages.

As sometimes happens with alarmist rumors, it is true that there is truth in some of these things: rapid economic growth in recent years has generated a demand for electricity (30% fueled by gas stations) much higher than was projected. But the claim that a new survey shows gas reserves are 8.8 trillion (U.S.) cubic feet instead of 11 to 14 trillion is a false distortion.

Just go to the website of the Ministry of Energy and Mines ( http://www.minem.gob.pe/ ) and see the recent study. This refers to two lots: Lot 88 (which now caters for a while Lima and export project will supply Repsol and Hunt to Mexico) and 56, the latest batch. The study of 88 clear in its second page that "the volumes of gas reserves are based on firm sales contracts for gas ... and others still under negotiation", and then gives the list of these contracts, including some not yet signed up to a total of 8.7 trillion, including several projected consumption until 2040. For Lot 56, the "best estimate" is 2.7 trillion, after reducing 26% hard to recover reserves. The sum of the two lots is 11.7 trillion, not 8.8 as some commentators have said. This amount is quite conservative, after various discounts, and national reserves does not include other children in the north coast and Aguaytía. Commentators do not mention that there are future exploration programs in lots 57 (Repsol), 58 (Petrobras) and Hunt (56), all in the same geological area of \u200b\u200bCamisea, which is promising.
true
Today two major problems: one, the global recession has collapsed gas prices in the U.S. and other markets and therefore has slowed exploration and two, low prices "introduction" of the gas given for power generation in the domestic market. Now will come a period of gradual adjustments to invest generators systems "combined cycle" that allow you to use less gas per unit of electricity produced. Even with extremely low international prices today, the export price of gas (if done now) is much higher than domestic prices for electricity generation.

The global recession will, if not later this year, probably in 2010. The challenge then will be to plan a coherent energy policy over the medium and long term. Peru has a hydroelectric potential of over 50,000 MW, which use less than 4,000 MW. It is clean, clean, but with significant investment costs and needs social and regional planning in the Sierra and the Amazon. We have not even begun to scratch the potential: for example, only the area near the Pongo de Manseriche has a potential of 8,000 MW, according to an expert in the matter, Mr. Alfonso Rizo Patron, former Minister of Works and very alert its more than 90 years of age.

energy planning will not work if prices do not reflect the potential shortage. Clearly we need subsidies for electricity tariffs to the poor, who represent the majority of the population. The cross-subsidy mechanism was launched in September 2001, promoted in the legislature when this author was Minister of Economy. For other consumers, who account for 90% of consumption, prices have to be realistic. It is the only way to encourage investment in generation, transmission and distribution. This will prevent future blackouts. Power outages will not be in a few days as claimed by the alarmists.



Addenda:

1. Export has not begun. This suepuestamente begin in 2011, but the very low prices persist in the market (USA / Mexico), where there is currently an abundance of gas, you may not have exportation until prices improve.

2. There are several groups exploring in the area of \u200b\u200bCamisea (Repsol, Petrobras and others) with promising signs but these were not included in the stock. If prices improve, there will be more expolaración.

Ap Laboratory 8 Hardy-weinberg Problems

The worst war and not the worst recession

This week was the 70 th anniversary of World War II, the worst war in history, whose consequences persist to this day. Over 50 million people, including the slaughter of 6 million Jews and more than 25 million dead in Russia. On September 1, 1939, 60 divisions (ie a million men) invaded Poland and made firewood. None of this would have happened if Neville Chamberlain, British Prime Minister until 1940, had not ceded Czechoslovakia to the Reich in the Munich agreement a year earlier. Western powers, mainly France and the United Kingdom signed its own death to emasculate the Czechs, who had the best defenses in Eastern Europe. That allowed Hitler went into Poland and the ride, knowing there would be no opposition from the east-had signed a pact with Stalin weeks before the cowardly nor-west.

The resulting World War II lasted six years. The country that suffered more than any other was Russia, invaded by Hitler after he broke the pact with Stalin had signed months earlier. With German troops at the gates of Moscow in December 1941, Russia reconsidered and slowly, with losses of millions of men and women, caused by "purging" internal, was recovering territory, meter by meter, with material support from the United States. With the gigantic battles of Stalingrad (1942-43) and Kursk (1943) Soviet Union's invasion of Hitler closed and sealed the fate of Eastern Europe for many decades.

Western historians focus on the great battles in Western Europe, especially the invasion of France on D-Day June 6 1944 and the U.S. war against Japan in the Pacific. Quite rightly, no doubt. But if Russia had not kept Hitler occupied by three long years, it is likely that the outcome of the war had been different and the history of Europe also would have been.

closes the curtain and go on 70. According to many commentators are in the worst recession since the years 1930-35. Lie, my friend Allan Meltzer says in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal. Shows the following figures:

Months GDP Industrial Production Fall recess highest unemployment rate 2007-2009

18 -3.8% -16.9% 9.5% (PPK 10%) 1937-1938 13

-18.2% -32.4% 20.0% 1973-1975

-15.3% 16 -15.3% 9.8%

1981-1982 -12.3% -12.3% 16 10.8%

He said the economic stimulus programs to encourage the consumer has been little or no effect. The actions of the Federal Reserve have created distrust among consumers, especially the abandonment of Lehman Brothers one year ago and the growth of the monetary base by a "maquinazo" of more than $ 1 trillion U.S. (or $ 1,000,000,000,000,000). The fact is that the recession is ending, albeit slowly. And just as there were political blunders that led us into World War II, in the management of the latter situation there have been serious errors in handling, although it is too early to write this story. For Peru, the best we can do in the midst of this commotion is, as Voltaire said, "cultivate our garden."

Lupus Shoulder Pain In One Shoulder

I recently a couple of days in Chimbote, the main industrial city in northern Peru. I invited the University of Chimbote Los Angeles where I gave a lecture and then participated in a fun concert sung by soprano Veronica Elect and child Cristian Aguero played Daniel Cortés and Gerardo Chavez and string trio who Hernan Valdivia accompanied with a couple of pieces of flute. Last night we were in the cathedral of Nuevo Chimbote (population 220.000 hab.) And then went with his dynamic mayor and our host Valentin Fernandez and Juan Armijo Civic Society members chimbotana the gaucho restaurant Zubzuck, former goalkeeper of the U, where the child Leonardo Estrada, who was born blind and the keyboard is wonderful, we had some nice melodies.

Besides these fun musical, I get the impression, after several visits to universities around the country, that our university students is much more optimistic than ten years ago. His main concern is how the economy going and their future participation in it, that impression comes not only from private universities but also the state, such as San Marcos, the Agrarian Huamanga, and national universities in places as diverse as Arequipa, Cusco, Piura, Pucallpa and Huancayo. Obviously

economic improvement on the past eight years, in all these cities is the main cause of this positive change. But Chimbote seems to have fallen behind, apart from the optimism seen in the southern Nuevo Chimbote. The two main industrial area, fishing and steel, are beaten. In the case of fisheries, under delegated legislative powers, was established last year a system of quotas. Obviously the goal of greater efficiency is being given, if not fish your quota, you lose what you do not fish, but on the way there are losers, especially the medium carriers and services such as spare parts and mechanics, who supply them. To some extent, part of this is inevitable, but urged a government presence to explain a bit. Otherwise, you can create a pressure environment quite unhappy.

In the case of steel, the international crisis has adversely affected the sale and production of domestic steel, in January and February this year the domestic steel sales had fallen nearly 80% over the figure in mid-2008. Now there have been a partial recovery but we are still 40% below last year, as in the rest of the world. The privatized Siderperu has reduced jobs and announced a reconstruction blast furnace, which is standing at the moment. Gerdau, the Brazilian owner of Sider, is serving the investment program announced at the time of privatization, but obviously is far to meet the inflated expectations that announced in 2007. This should explain more clearly why the "revamping" of the blast furnace has been unable to absorb redundant workers when, as has happened in the past in countries as diverse as Argentina and Mexico. This is also important to state the presence of senior management of the company.

Finally, many complex problems of the Chimbote region remain unresolved, such as irrigation puppets at the foot of the Santa River. Casma-Huaraz highway, initiated by the previous government, is not yet complete. The situation seems paradoxical to local observers, given the vast resources of the Canon Minero that has accumulated in the Ancash region-clear that they could not be used on a national route without any legislative changes. Chimbote

authorities need to pay more attention Lima.